M A R B L E
// S T U D I O S █

Current prediction markets price events in isolation. This thesis proposes conditional markets where outcomes are linked — if A happens, what is the probability of B? The mechanism enables conviction-weighted positions that compound through Bayesian updating.

The endgame is a protocol where information has a price and accuracy compounds into reputation. Markets become instruments of collective intelligence, not just speculation.

A skill marketplace where quality is enforced by on-chain financial incentives. Think ClawHub — but every skill creator stakes reputation backed by real capital. Deliver value, your reputation compounds. Ship garbage, you lose your stake. Economic accountability replaces star ratings.

The mechanism: creators bond tokens when publishing skills. Users pay to use them. Resolution is tracked on-chain — completion rate, output quality, user retention. Reputation scores are sybil-resistant, domain-specific, and financially meaningful. Security through economics, not moderation.

An empirical study of pricing inefficiencies on Polymarket's CLOB. We collect high-frequency snapshots across 2,000+ markets, testing hypotheses covering mean reversion, overreaction patterns, whale flow signals, and volume-liquidity anomalies.

Early findings suggest exploitable patterns in post-event overshooting and volume-price divergence. Paper trading validation underway with automated scientific method cycles — test, compare, refine, repeat.